I have been monitoring many of the HL sales on eBay. In comparison, I have been monitoring many secondary market brokers of HL products. I have noticed that many of the brokers have adjusted the prices of their pieces in accordance with the bids for the same product on eBay. Has eBay become a standard to gauge value? Art, you are up to speed on this stuff, have you noticed the same thing?

Tim - Keeping the flame lit...

I'm Bob, not Art, and I'm still amazed at the difference in bids that win similar HLs. Taking into consideration we only get to read a small narrative about a particular HL for auction, it makes me wonder why two of the same model can sell for such different prices. Granted one may be a lower edition number in some cases but that shouldn't have a dramatic effect on price.

My advice is to put Art's Chart in your cart before you start to depart with your money. Having a good sense of worth before bidding will always guide you into a good deal.

Now I will wait to hear from our resident expert on eBay values, ...Art!

Bob

I have no hard data on this, so I can't answer your question. :-) But my suspicion, stated as a tautology, is that the market is the market. There aren't two HL markets, there's simply different mediums of advertising.

Some dealers will always charge more and there's a variety of factors that influence the price of the same thing depending on who sells it and hows its sold. For example - you'll pay more for a six pack of coke at your local gas/convenience store than you will in your giant supermarket. Although there are reputable dealers on e-Bay, many of the non-Net secondary dealers have been in business for many years and have have built a reputation and a customer base. Service and convenience can have an effect on price.

One thing eBay has done is to make pricing information more accessible. Items whose intrinsic value is less than their perceived value (eg Collectibles) have no tie to some other thing - unlike items having intrinsic value and whose bottom price is relative (eg regular gas vs. premium gas). The market for lighthouse models gets 'discovered' as sellers learn what people are willing to pay. The more information buyers have about pricing the more likely they are not to make gross errors in their own valuations.

Of course relative scarcity and desire play major roles. Given two early pieces starting out at the same price - why is one 'worth' so much more now than another? Presumably because its harder to find one for sale and more people desire it than the other model. I think these are fundamental factors that apply to all models regardless of their sale on eBay or through the more traditional secondary.

I'll continue to recommend folks buy pieces that retired quicker and have been retired longer over pieces that haven't. Those are the ones that tend to hold their value best over time and are more likely to appreciate.

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/im
[This message has been edited by JTimothyA (edited 11-05-2000).]

I have stated frequently that I believe eBay is changing the Collectibles secondary market profoundly. It is a source of information hitherto unparalleled, and easily brings large numbers of buyers and sellers together, efficiently. Information, as much as anything else, drives all markets. The accessibility of eBay and the volume of transactions there must affect the average sales price of HLs sold by any other method. It will become even more influential as people without internet access become the exception rather than the rule.

Because eBay is so information-rich and such a market efficiency enhancer, it is difficult to argue that anything else presently available can surpass the average price of successfully completed eBay auctions over time as a barometer of market value.

Bob, yes, there is a large variation between high and low prices of individual pieces. That’s why I use the average as my gauge.

I agree with Tim: The market is the market. Y=Y. Who can argue? :-)

I also agree that there are some dealers to whom I am happy to pay a small markup over eBay average. Trust and service are worth a little more. There is a small amount of fear of the unkown factored into eBay prices. Still, I believe that even these secondary dealers must take their cue from what is going on at eBay if they want to sell anything at all.

So, Has eBay become a standard to gauge value? Imo, Clearly “Yes”.


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-Art

Art... I understand what you are saying, but somehow I wonder if the winning bids truly reflect the actual worth of a piece (whatever that may be). For example... an Assateague Mold 2 went for $227.50 last night. That is amazing in my eyes because all of the secondary brokers I deal with have them for sale anywhere between $130.00 and $188.00. I decided to e-mail the winning bidder of the Assateague and put them in touch with a few of these brokers that I know of. They e-mailed me back and explained that they were not aware of these brokers, nor were they aware of R@R.

I guess my question is; how much of this is going on out there, or, how many people are bidding on items in eBay without checking first the availability elsewhere? I know there is no way to determine the answer, but does this properly gauge the true worth of a piece? But then, the opposite is true as well when it comes to eBay, such as a CH2 going for $450.00. As you already do Art, I guess averaging is the only thing one can do. Thanks again for your help and time put into the Market Ticker. I use them greatly!

Tim - Keeping the flame lit...

Case Study #1:

HL117, Boston Harbor.

What's it worth? $454.50? $125.00? $187.69?

These are actual data from actual sales on eBay in the year 2000.

If you were a seller, what would you expect to get for your piece right now? What if you were a buyer?

Hint: The YTD average selling price for this piece as of this writing is $187.69.


Don't be fooled by one or two gee-wiz auctions. The average is boring, but it's right!

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-Art

I bought my Boston Harbor HL 117 a couple of months after the reunion in Providence in 1998. I paid $150 and I was happy with that price. I would estimate that a fair price for a Boston Harbor would be about $175-$200 at the present time.


The people bidding on eBay continue to amaze me with what they will pay for items. When I visit eBay I look for deals. I don't "win" that many auctions but when I do I get a deal.

Bob